Delusion

Okay here is my year end prediction. Just in time for Thanksgiving. Hopefully, I’ll have a bit of time between pie baking, turkey stuffing and sweet potato mashing to get that blog out too.

Frankly, I was shocked to see $1.76 gas in Massachusetts. While we can once again enjoy the sweet smell of toxic fumes rising from the tank as we pump (except in those states with those stupid nozzle covers) and a trip across the Bay State costs $17.00 instead of $50.00, the soft prices are nevertheless alarming. Not that I didn’t predict that the prices would be at $2.00 by the end of the year.

Don’t ask why I suspected such. Maybe it was the common sense feeling that speculators were going to get burned like those who fooled around in dot coms and real estate flips. They were creating a nasty storm and a catastrophe was imminent. Or maybe I suspected the demand pull back would finally catch the market and OPEC by surprise. But by Father’s Day I told Jen the prices would be back down to $2.00.

What would I care about the price of gas? I haven’t bought a gallon since I topped my Jeep off in early October at $3.61. Okay, I rented a car in Hawaii for three days and bought $14.50 at Costco for $3.58, I think. I’ve been riding my bike every since. And since my return to New York it has been so darn cold that the damn Jeep wouldn't start until I put a new battery in it after the weather warmed up a tad.

My psychological breakpoint for a gallon of gas is $2.25. That I can stomach, almost. This price fell into my wallet after I returned from the Peace Corps. Life was good. Without a job, but with money in the bank, I could swallow the price.
I remember the first time I paid $1.75. I was ripped off at a station just off the New York State Thruway. Forty more miles and just south of the Jersey border it was sitting in the ground for 40 cents less. But I was on vapors and didn’t want to chance pushing the Jeep anywhere. I pumped it and swore I’d never pay that much again.

But how about that little?

Now we are caught in a precarious situation. We are breathing again – assuming you are not one of the ten million who have lost their jobs, or lost your retirement accounts, or your house. Americans will treat themselves to a few extra miles on the road this holiday because we deserve it, by God, because we don’t have much left, except hope, maybe a dribbling of hope with those mash potatoes. We’ll make the extra trip to Target or WalMart to pick up the Nano I-pod before trucking off to Grandma’s for glutton and gridiron in front of the brand new 50 inch wide screen high def TV. And that spike we create will raise the eye brows of Saudis and Democrats. The OPEC dudes will cut production and The People's Ruler will talk of imposing an oil tax to curb the spiked demand. By the end of the year the spike will settle, maybe around my mark $2.25.

I just read an article in an October 8th newspaper. To quote, “anyone who thinks gas will be below $2.00 anytime soon is delusional.” I am. I am. After almost an 8 trillion dollar bailout of Monopoly money, the economy isn’t going anywhere. Gas will continue to tank. Gas below one dollar? I say hell yes, until we believe we are personally going to grab a hammer, join Obama’s union and build a new bridge. That’s the real delusion.